Should United Airlines reconsider its fleet plans?

Hello All,

In this blog post we will discuss United Airlines’ fleet plans. The Chicago based airline fleet is interesting in many aspects. In spite of being the third largest widebody passenger operator after Emirates and IAG it exclusively operates Boeing twin aisle aircraft for now. It is also the largest airline in the world not to have placed an A320neo family order. Lastly its Boeing 757 and 767 fleets are aging fast so the carrier needs to find suitable replacements. We will outline United’s current fleet plans and discuss whether the carrier should consider changes.

According to planespotters.net below is the current United fleet:

Type	Count	On Order	Family	Type
A319	72	34	A320	Medium Haul
A320	99	4	A320	Medium Haul
737-700	40		B737	Medium Haul
737-800	141		B737	Medium Haul
737-900ER	148		B737	Medium Haul
737-9	14	71	B737	Medium Haul
737-10		100	B737	Medium Haul
757-200	56		757-767	Midsize
757-300	21		757-767	Midsize
767-300ER	37	1	757-767	Midsize
767-400ER	16	0	757-767	Midsize
777-200	19	0	B777	Long Haul
777-200ER	55	0	B777	Long Haul
777-300ER	18	4	B777	Long Haul
787-8	12	0	B787	Long Haul
787-9	25	13	B787	Long Haul
787-10	9	5	B787	Long Haul
A350-900	0	45	A350	Long Haul
Total	782	277

The airline currently operates 16 types within 5 families: Airbus A320, Boeing 737, Boeing 757 and 767, Boeing 777 and Boeing 787. We classify aircraft as either medium haul, midsize or long haul:

Aircraft Type	In Fleet	On Order	Latest Generation
Medium Haul	514	209	171
Midsize	130	1
Long Haul	138	67	63
Total	782	277	234

We don’t consider the A319, A320, 767-300ER and 777-300ER as latest generation aircraft

Under the current strategy the A350-900 and various 787 variants will replace aging 777-200s, 777-200ERs and some 767-300ERs. The 737-9 will replace older narrowbody aircraft and the 737-10 the 757 on most domestic routes.

While the fleet strategy addresses some of the carrier’s replacement needs it isn’t comprehensive. United did not order any latest generation small narrowbody aircraft. The second hand order for 34 A319 and 4 A320 effectively kicks the can down the road in the 150 and below seat segment. American Airlines is in a similar situation while Delta Air Lines ordered and already operates the A220.

However the biggest problem for United is the 757 and 767 replacement. The carrier did not order any aircraft of similar size to replace the 757 on longer than transcontinental domestic and transatlantic missions. The full 767 replacement isn’t finalized either. Since both aircraft fleets are more than 21 years old the issue is becoming more pressing.

Now that we outlined United Airlines’ plans and its deficiencies, what should the Chicago based carrier do? We will look at the long haul, midsize and medium haul segments separately.

Long Haul

It is fair to say that historically the carrier has been more Boeing focused. Both companies are headquartered in Chicago. Continental Airlines also had exclusivity agreements with Boeing to purchase airplanes in the past. The order for 45 A350-900 changes that for the all Boeing widebody operator.

Airbus had to fight hard for that order. It was originally an order for 35 A350-1000 to replace the 747-400. However the carrier kept postponing deliveries, opting instead to order the 777-300ER after very aggressive pricing from Boeing. This order was converted to the A350-900, with deliveries from 2022 to replace the aging 777-200(ER) fleet.

United is currently the second largest 787 operator after All Nippon Airways. The airline needs the A350-900 because the 787-10 does not have anywhere near the 777-200ER’s range (6400 vs 7000 nautical miles nominal range). However following the Air New Zealand order for 8 787-10 the latter received a maximum takeoff weight hike. While nothing was officially released it is rumored to represent an hour’s worth of extra flying. This would bring the 787-10 nominal range up to 6800 nm. The Chicago based carrier could effectively operate flights up to 6200 nm with the 787-10 after the MTOW hike (and even longer if it opts for lower density cabins).

Below is a list of United’s routes with a great circle distance of 6200 nm or more:

Hub	Destination	Distance (nm)	Aircraft Family
EWR	DEL	6364	B777
EWR	BOM	6784	B777
EWR	PVG	6416	B777
EWR	HKG	7009	B777
IAH	SYD	7470	B787
ORD	HKG	6773	B777
LAX	SYD	6507	B787
LAX	MEL	6883	B787
SFO	TLV	6449	B777
SFO	SYD	6445	B787
SFO	SIN	7340	B787
SFO	DEL	6697	B787
SFO	MEL	6826	B787

Only six flights longer than 6200 nm are currently operated by 777 family aircraft (either the -200ER or -300ER). Like American Airlines, should United cancel its A350-900 order?

This blog believes the Chicago based carrier should not cancel its A350-900 order for several reasons.

United is the third largest passenger widebody operator in the world. Therefore it has the scale to operate twin aisle aircraft from both manufacturer without negatively affecting fleet commonality. The airline is better off keeping both manufacturer on their toes rather than exclusively rely on one.

United’s long haul network and strategy is fundamentally different from American. The carrier has historically had a strong presence in the three largest international markets in the USA: New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The recent 777-300ER order shows that the airline needs large aircraft. While American is present in both New York and Lost Angeles, the carrier has materially reduced its presence in the former and is a smaller actor in the Transpacific market.

Lastly ordering A350 family aircraft gives more flexibility. The carrier can up-gauge ultra long haul flights to the A350-900 from the 787-9 if demand justifies it. Down the line the A350-1000 can replace the 777-300ER if market conditions still justify the usage of similarly sized aircraft.

Midsize

It is fair to say that United’s midsize airplane strategy is debatable. The longest flights the 737-10 can effectively operate are Transcontinental. Being the latest 737 stretch, its field performance is even worse than the 737-9. Lastly United is the carrier among the big 3 with the most routes operated at the limit of the 757 range. Those routes are not within the 737-10’s range. Below is the list:

Hub	Destination	Distance (nm)
EWR	GLA	2805
EWR	EDI	2839
EWR	SNN	2690
EWR	MAN	2914
EWR	LIS	2941
EWR	OPO	2902
EWR	LIM	3155
EWR	ANC	2928
IAD	DUB	2958
IAD	EDI	3021
IAD	LIS	3121
ORD	EDI	3225
ORD	DUB	3192
DEN	KOA	2893
DEN	OGG	2870
DEN	LIH	2967

United already operates A320 family aircraft. As pointed out earlier is the largest airline in the world that did not order A320neo family aircraft. The Chicago based carrier should seriously consider ordering the A321neo and A321 XLR, especially if the latter is launched, regardless of Boeing’s ultimate decision on the New Midsize Airplane. The A321 XLR would allow United to launch more seasonal flights to Europe as well as keep more frequencies during winter months. It would be a suitable aircraft to grow its Washington Dulles hub. Narrowbody flights from Houston to Hawaii would also become possible.

Just like United exercised its option to upgrade its 737 MAX order to the -10 variant, it has the option to downgrade it. The A321 XLR would also allow United to hedge its bets regarding the NMA. If the latter’s entry into service is delayed it will be extremely expensive for the carrier to maintain its aging 757 and 767 in service (the current fleet would be 27 year average age in 2025). The NMA could replace the 767 on all missions to Europe from the US East Coast, as well as numerous flights to Latin America. If the NMA isn’t launched the 787-8 could replace the 767 on routes not within the range of the A321 XLR.

Medium Haul

While the 737-10’s field performance isn’t great, smaller 737 MAX variants are better on that front. In spite of the recent grounding the 737 MAX remains a competitive medium sized narrowbody aircraft. As discussed before the airline could consider converting the order for the -10 to smaller variants if it elects to order the A321neo and A321 XLR.

The biggest sticking point in United’s medium haul fleet strategy is the below 150 seat segment. Its President, Scott Kirby, described the segment’s economics as challenging. For now the airline is kicking the can down the road, with an order for 34 second hand A319s. The airline could order the 737-7 or A319neo but their economics aren’t great. The two viable latest generation aircraft dedicated to that segment are the Airbus A220 and Embraer E2. It remains to be seen whether the carrier sees a large enough opportunity in that segment to justify introducing a new family type.

To summarize United Airlines’ widebody strategy is in a good place. The A350 is an excellent aircraft for the carrier’s hubs in markets with more international traffic than American and Delta. It is also healthier not to exclusively rely on Boeing for the widebody fleet. The midsize strategy is more questionable. Ordering the 737-10 was perhaps a mistake when one operates so many routes at the limit of the 757 range. With the expected launch of the A321 XLR the Chicago based carrier should seriously consider ordering A321neo family aircraft to replace its aging 757 fleet, and down-gauge the 737-10 to smaller MAX variants. Regarding the medium haul fleet the 737 MAX remains a solid backbone. The remaining open question is whether the below 150 seat segment justifies ordering a dedicated type like the A220, or is better served by the slow selling 737-7. In my opinion United should make sure it places order from Airbus and Boeing for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft.

Credit: United Airlines

7