What are the potential new A330neo customers?

Hello All,

After discussing the sale prospect timelines for the A330neo last week, this week the blog continues with the Airbus family. We now focus on Airbus’ sales prospects with new customers.

Per Planespotters.net data, there are around 4,400 twin-aisle aircraft currently in passenger service. Around 390 of those (220 of which are A330ceos) are with airlines that have not ordered new-generation aircraft or are unlikely to take delivery of existing OEM orders as such.

Of those 390-ish potential aircraft for replacement, which ones are potential new A330neo customers?

Fifteen solid candidates

This blog believes there are 15 solid A330neo candidates totaling 64 older-generation aircraft, all A330ceo operators: Air Transat (13), Srilankan Airlines (11), Aerolineas Argentinas (10), VietJet Air (7), Flynas (4), RwandAir (3), Afriqiyah Airways (3), Air Serbia (2), Batik Air Malaysia (2), Libyan Airlines (2), Nepal Airlines (2), South African Airways (2), Tunisair (2), Batik Air (1), Yemenia (1).

Note that four of them (Srilankan Airlines, Afriqiyah Airways, Libyan Airlines, and Yemenia) have ordered the A350. All those airlines are capital-starved, so converting their orders to the cheaper A330neo makes sense.

One could add Indigo, the Indian low-cost carrier, which is currently pondering a twin-aisle aircraft order. They represent 16 out of the 64 older-generation aircraft in service.

A larger number of “maybe” candidates

Twelve airlines operating 80 older-generation aircraft, in this blog’s opinion, that could also order the A330neo but are more likely to either choose the A350 or 787. The list is Hong Kong Airlines (18), Aer Lingus (13), Beijing Capital Airlines (9), Brussels Airlines (9), Shenzhen Airlines (6), Tianjin Airlines (6), Tibet Airlines (5), Lucky Air (4), Icelandair (3), Serene Air (3), Aer Lingus UK (2), and Ukraine International (2).

Fourty-eight out of the 80 older-generation aircraft are with airlines operating in China or Hong Kong. The Chinese government has not approved the purchase of A330neos, favoring the A350 instead. This blog believes that Chinese A330neo orders would have materialized by now if the family had bright sales prospects in the country.

Favoring the A350 or 787

This blog believes three carriers operating 26 older-generation aircraft will prefer ordering the A350 (Discover Airlines in Germany with 13 aircraft and World2fly Portugal with one unit) or 787 (Pakistan International Airlines with 12 aircraft).

The sanction countries

Airbus is unlikely to sell A330neos to airlines in some countries because of sanctions, totaling 89 older-generation aircraft: Russia (51), Iran (31), Venezuela (5), and Syria (2).

Unlikely to place an OEM order

The remaining airlines, operating 132 older-generation aircraft, are unlikely to take delivery of brand new aircraft (whether a direct OEM order or via a Lessor) in this blog’s opinion. It does not mean they will not operate the A330neo in the future. Instead, they will likely take them on a “second lease” in the 2030s, or opportunistically step in place of another airline in distress.

Conclusion

If we account for the “maybe” category, Airbus will likely be able to sell between 50 and 100 A330neo to new customers in future years. To reach the 500-order objective for the program, Airbus will need follow-up orders from existing customers.

Condor recently ordered three more A330-900s. Other airlines that might order more A330neos if their financial situation improves are AirAsia X, Azul, and Garuda Indonesia. However, Airbus’ best prospects for a larger order are with Delta Air Lines. The American carrier still has 66 767s and 42 A330ceos to replace, against 32 orders combined for the A330neo and A350.

If things go reasonably well, Airbus might reach between 150 and 200 more orders. After subtracting Iran Air’s order, the program tally would come in the 425-475 range (there have been 323 nominal orders).