Hello All,
The Emirate of Dubai announced that it would migrate all of Dubai’s commercial aircraft operations from the current Dubai International Airport (DXB) to Dubai World Central (DWC) within 10 years. After abandoning such a move in the late 2010s, the high commercial aviation and economic growth in the Dubai emirate make its rulers confident the move justifies the high price tag.
In this blog post, we will try to assess the impact on Emirates’ fleet plans. We will assume that there is no global or regional calamity (war, oil price collapse, or change of regime in the UAE) that would severely dent Dubai’s long-term commercial aviation growth prospects.
Slot constraints already limiting Emirates’ opportunities
DXB has, like London Heathrow, two operational runways. Its traffic was higher last year because larger aircraft operate there. Emirates is the world’s largest A380 (116) and 777-300ER (123) operator. Except for the niche 747-8, the A380 and 777-300ER are the two largest passenger aircraft in commercial service.
The largest aircraft allow Emirates to carry high volumes of passengers and freight through DXB but they limit Emirates’ network opportunities. Except for 10 777-200LRs, the 777-300ER is the smallest aircraft in the carrier’s fleet.
The set of markets where it is economically viable to operate the 777-300ER, including freight, is relatively limited. It limits the ability of Emirates to expand into smaller markets. While Flydubai operates its 737s to thinner routes, there is a sizable capacity gap between the 737-8/-9 and 777-200LR.
If Emirates wants to expand its footprint further it needs many more aircraft, which means a larger airport with more runways and gates.
Don’t expect drastic order book changes
Emirates should receive its first A350-900 this summer, supply chain permitting. The smaller aircraft should open new markets and improve profitability.
The Dubai flag carrier has 300 passenger aircraft on order: 65 A350-900s, 205 777Xs (35 -8s and 170 -9s), 15 787-8s, and 15 787-10s. The current passenger fleet has 249 aircraft.
This blog believes that passenger growth will allow Emirates to profitably operate 205 777-9s. It expects Rolls-Royce to improve the Trent XWB 97 durability enough to allow an A350-1000 order and the conversion of the 777-8s to 777-9s. Boeing’s 10K mentions that the 777-8 wouldn’t be ready until the early 2030s, while the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB 97 upgrade should enter service by 2027. The A350-1000’s economics are much better than those of the 777-8.
But follow-up orders on smaller variants
Emirates’ follow-up orders will likely focus on smaller aircraft. This blog expects more Dreamliner and A350-900/-1000 orders once the larger terminal at Dubai World Central is completed. By then, Boeing should have (hopefully) recovered its Dreamliner deferred production costs, allowing a lowering of the 787 price.
The move to Dubai World Central by the mid-2030s coincides with Emirates’ planned A380 retirement plans. Once it has access to more gates in Dubai, Emirates’ A380 fleet should shrink fast in the second half of the 2030s. The A380 retirement pace could be influenced why whether and when Boeing launches the 777-10.
The move to Dubai World Central will allow Emirates to implement what it cannot do now: a “Swiss army knife” fleet (787-8/-9/-10, A350-900/-1000, 777-9/-10?) to better optimize its profitability across its network.
EPSILON AVIATION 
This may seem a silly question but DWC seems to only have 1 runway and is well to the south of the city. Maybe they have yet to build the 2nd runway or make that 3rd as well.
Toronto built a newer bigger second airport , but much further away from the city. A case of build it and they didnt come.
Maybe the non Emirates carriers refuse to move but instead use the Sharjah international airport which is only 10 miles to the north of DXB or 12 miles from the city centre . DWC is 25 miles away from city centre. Sharjah is a different state but the same UAE
Toronto built a newer bigger second airport , but much further away from the city. A case of build it and they didnt come.
LikeLike
It is not a silly question! The airport is indeed further away from the city center. The difference here is that Dubai has the ability to force the relocation, while in Western Countries local authorities/residents have far more ability to push back. Another major recession/war could also force Dubai to abandon or severely curtail the DWC expansion.
LikeLike
… the challenge I see to the Swiss Army knife approach is that it is not Emirates’ business model. Yes, they are accepting A350s, but I think that was a settlement with Airbus. Emirates had deposits for A380s… and turned them into A350s… am I wrong?
… I also wonder about the A350 for Emirates. Emirates has a focus on premium PAXs. And sure the First and Business pods would install into an A350 just fine.
…For a while now Emirates has been introducing newly refurbished planes with Premium Economy. An A350 would have 2x4x2 in premium economy (wrong?). I imagine the 777X will also have 2x4x2. However, the X has 15 inches more cabin width at seat height. Some may argue those extra inches are not important for Economy, or business pods, but for Premium Economy those two center seats, think about what you could do.
… And FlyDubai has 30 x 787s on order. The owner of Emirates and FlyDubai is the same, and Clarke has said they are destined to cooperate. Thus…. why would Emirates need a Swiss Army Knife strategy?
LikeLike
The combined FlyDubai + Emirates is the “swiss army knife”. Right now there is a capacity gap between the 737-8/-9 and 777-200LR. How do you see the Dubai carriers expanding into smaller markets without smaller twin-aisle?
LikeLiked by 1 person
… oh, I agree. Do you think this strategy will help them against rapidly raising Turkish Airlines?
…What about the announced Riyadh Airlines?
LikeLike
I guess growth opportunities in major markets (say, Kangeroo Route) are limited, especially if legacy flag carriers managed to regain foothold with ULH direct flights.
And we don’t need to look at Riyadh or THY yet – see how Qatar managed to grow by filling niches, despite the mammoth Emirates is right next door. For example, Sarajevo and Cardiff are / were often served by narowbodies or smallest widebodies Qatar owned (332/788). 77L wouldn’t be the best tool for Emirates to try those destinations even considering their huge feeder network.
LikeLike
@CHRISTOPHERAJARED
The A350 NPS (New Production Standard) has an internal width, at armrest height, of 225 inches. On the 777-300ER and 777X the internal width at armrest height is 230 inches and 234 inches, respectively. In comparison, the internal width at armrest height is 216 inches for the 787.
LikeLike