Hello All,
Despite Boeing’s persistent production issues, the 787-9 passenger reached an important milestone: per planespotters.net data, there are now as many of them in passenger service as A330-300s (625).
This post will compare the in-service fleet of both aircraft that have similar passenger capacity.
Remarkably similar fleet profiles
The below table summarizes the passenger fleet profiles by variant (does not include 787-9 aircraft on order):
| Variant | A330-300 | 787-9 |
| In Passenger Service | 625 | 625 |
| Operator Count | 69 | 52 |
| Operators with 10 or more aircraft | 24 | 27 |
| HHI Index (%) | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Share of in-service fleet with airlines operating 10 or more aircraft (%) | 73 | 82 |
Both fleets are on the podium of the most diversified twin-aisle ones (the other is the A330-200). The A330-300 is marginally more diversified, with more airlines operating fewer aircraft on average. It is not surprising because it is an older-generation aircraft with lower capital costs than the 787-9.
The five largest A330 operators are Cathay Pacific (43), Turkish Airlines (36), Delta Air Lines (31), Saudia (31), and Air China (28). The five largest 787-9 operators are All Nippon Airways (43), United Airlines (38), Etihad Airways (33), Air Canada (31), and Hainan Airlines (28).
But different geographical breakdowns
The table below shows the share of the in-service fleet by region:
| Region Share (%) | A330-300 | 787-9 |
| Africa | 2 | 3 |
| Asia Pacific | 56 | 38 |
| Europe | 27 | 21 |
| Latin America | 0 | 6 |
| Middle East | 7 | 15 |
| North America | 8 | 16 |
More than half of in-service A330-300s are in the Asia-Pacific region. The aircraft is popular, especially among Chinese airlines (123 total in service) for intra-Asia flights on trunk routes.
The 787-9 operator base has more regional diversity. It is because of the variant’s appeal for thin long-haul routes
Looking forward
This blog believes that the A330-300 retirements won’t accelerate until the early 2030s, especially with lingering twin-aisle production delays at Airbus and Boeing. Airlines will first focus on retiring other less economical variants (A340s, A330-200s, 747s, 767-300ERs, and 777-200ERs). Usage will drastically drop only by the end of the 2030s unless more stringent environmental regular force earlier retirements.
The 787-9 has a bright fleet future with 585 outstanding orders. It will likely be the first twin-aisle variant to break the 1,000 units delivered milestone. A production line filled for five years means that there won’t likely be many orders in the next few years. Expect orders to accelerate later in the decade once slots open up.
The next major milestone for the 787-9 will be becoming the variant with the most twin-aisle aircraft in passenger service, overtaking the 777-300ER in the process. The 777-300ER still has 768 in-service passenger aircraft, so it won’t likely happen until at least the second half of 2026, depending on how quickly Boeing resolves its production issues.
EPSILON AVIATION 
The A330 at introduction was much lower gross weight, 212 tonnes than at the end 2015 , 242 tonnes, showing the payload-range growth
Thats because its design range was only 4000nm back then and the long range version was the 4 engine A340. The market failure of the A340 after ETOPS were changed meant the similar airframe capabilities were ‘transferred’ to the twin.
The A330-900 or neo is now 351 tonnes.
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Indeed, which made it a suitable intra-Asia aircraft where 4000nm was more than adequate. Garuda, Korean Air, and Cathay still operate a few of those older A330-300s with lower MTOW. I understand that Airbus deliberately held back the A330-300 MTOW to prop up A340 sales. There is probably also the fact the A330 airframe + engines were not designed from the onset with ETOPS 180 operations in mind and 5500nm. Had it been the case (20/20 hindsight is too easy), imagine how much harder life for Boeing would have been in the twin-aisle market. As you pointed out design improvements came over time.
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That said what makes A330 capable of medium to long haul flights with relative efficiency (even against 787) is thanks to the shared elements of A340. Without that chances are its growth potential is as limited as A300/A310, and Airbus won’t be able to capture the market.
Interestingly, for some reasons it seems hard to stretch 787’s capacity and capability beyond current form of 789/78J, while A350 seems to have much more baked in.
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Indeed the A330 had plenty of potential thanks to the shared elements with the A340.
Re. the 787 Boeing made a far more compact design from the beginning. Despite being much shorter than the A350-900, the 787-9 can accommodate as many LD3s. The consequence is that there is not (much if any) space for a larger landing gear that can handle heavier MTOWs. The A350-1000 has triple bogeys as you know. The 787 wing is also smaller, with less room under it to put higher bypass ratio engines. Part of the reason for the lower potential is that Boeing screwed up the initial 787 specs. While the A350-900 turned out 3% heavier than target, the 787-8 was 10% heavier!!! This means the engines had to work much harder than envisioned. While the GEnx handled ok the higher thrust, it has been a major contributing factor for the Trent 1000 problems.
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… I think I remember that in the first few years after the launch of the larger variant 10, it was a dud. Nobody wanted it.
… I wonder if the 9 will continue to be the most popular variant? Perhaps the 9 will never hit the 1000 frames mark.
… Your post details very well the huge demand for smaller twin aisles frames. Smaller than the “Jumbos”. I could see the 10 being the most popular variant in the long run.
… The math would need to focus on the range demanded for the mission, not potential range of the frame.
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The scenarios where the 787-9 does not reach the 1,000 mark (remember 625 in service + 580 on order) are:
– An event that crushes passenger demand like a world war or pandemic that wipes out a large share of the global population
– a monster up-gauging that you allude to, but I have my doubts it would happen that quickly.
– Boeing keeps screwing things up on the production side for so long that it cannot even reach that milestone despite strong demand
Remember there won’t likely be a twin-aisle entering service until 2040. By year-end there will likely be at least 650 in-service 787-9s. 350 frames over 15 years, that about 2/month. The 787-9 demand for the next five years is at least 5/month.
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… When I look at the Boeing database documenting orders, United is listed for 200 variant 9s (with options). That is not what UA will take delivery of. UA already flies all 787 variants, and I expect it will adjust its order as time progresses, two years before delivery, via planning between UA & Boeing. I have not looked through the entire 787 order book. But 200 frames is large in itself. I am assuming UA negotiated a good contract with Boeing that includes pricing for each variant, and flexibility to choose among them via advanced planning.
… In your list of operators you include Air Canada which currently has 32 variant 9 frames. But orders for another 30 variant 10, starting delivery next year.
… The best argument for systemic upgauging is because they can. And other airlines that do not have a place in the OEM queue will starve, assuming demand remains stronger, and even grows further.
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Your point about UA’s order is indeed valid. Airlines have options to convert variants depending on how demand evolves.
There are still 600-ish 767s and A330-200s in service that will mostly be up-gauged to largest stuff. I expect the 787-9 to take the biggest share, but other variants will take some too.
Some 787-8 operators (380 in service) will also likely up-gauge to larger stuff (think Qatar Airways).
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… regarding Qatar Airways needs, does variant ten meet the challenges of the desert? From Clark we know the 1000 does not. (not that they are the same plane or engine)
… Regarding upgauging, let us keep in mind the difference in list price between the 9 and 10 is small. The 9 is 148m, the ten is 155m. I get those prices from a Seattle Times article, the numbers might be dated, but I doubt the spread is dated.
… I go back to “mission”. Large North American carriers run “bus services” between large city pairs both within NA and some pairs outside of North America (London New York, Toronto Tokyo). Unlike Cathy or BA, they pack in more seats because it is a bus service, especially between NA city pairs. This makes variant 10 the winner in the long run to my mind.
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… Perhaps this is a different blog post, but there may be a ripple effect to this discussion.
… If you are correct (which you may be), and variant 9 becomes the workhorse for many carriers around the world, including NA. I suggest this is good news for the 777X.
… If variant 10 of the 787 becomes the work horse, this might suggest NA carriers will not place orders for the 777X program. ( or a very limited number)
… NA carriers prefer frenquent flights over larger capacity. And NA carriers also distribute capacity over several cities, reducing the need for the highest capacity aircraft. Not one A380 was ordered by a NA carrier.
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Hello I agree that as time goes on the -10 will get a bigger share of overall Dreamliner deliveries.
As I wrote in the post airlines now are prioritizing the 767 and A330-200 replacements, which favors the 787-9. A330-300 and 777-300ER replacements will accelerate in the early 2030s, which will favor the 787-10 as you point out.
If you assume a 10/month 787 production rate , the variant breakdown is roughly 7 for the combined 787-8/-9 and and 3 for the 787-10. In the early 2030s I agree this could plausibly shift to monthly rates of 3/4 combined 787-8/-9s and 6/7 787-10s.
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… indeed. 100%. And they don’t have to retire the old frame right away. If loads remain high, carriers like United can just keep the older frames for a couple more years…until Boeing gets their act together.
… if for some reason (war?) we have a recession…just drop the old frames.
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Indeed, older frames are the best “hedge” against either a recession/war or high fuel prices, not complicated jetfuel hedging strategies that can backfire (some carriers lost $bns in 2008-09 once crude oil prices collapsed during the Global Financial Crisis).
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… I was using UA as an example…think about the HUGE hedge Emirates has. Currently refurbishing their 300ER interiors…not really an old fleet. Clark is clearly planning a huge expansion when 777X deliveries start. If not, no problem, retire the oldest frames.
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